Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs

Our daily 30-year fixed mortgage rate index reached 6.75% yesterday, matching the previous high from May 19 and marking the highest level since July 29, 2025.

The recent spike has largely been driven by the rise in fuel prices in July, combined with the fact that mortgage rates had not fallen below 6.52% over the past two months. In other words, rates were already trading within an elevated range, and the increase in fuel prices simply gave them an additional push higher.

Heading into today, we knew there was potential for volatility surrounding two major events: Fed Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, a key inflation report.

Warsh’s testimony had very little impact on the market, but the CPI report was a different story. It showed that inflation in June came in significantly lower than expected. Lower inflation is generally good news for mortgage rates.

However, the bond market is well aware that July’s inflation data could tell a different story. That concern limited the extent of today’s rate recovery, with the daily rate index declining by just 0.05 percentage points to 6.70%.

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